Expert Elicitation

{
  "id": "MLC-T-ENV-010423",
  "term": "Expert Elicitation",
  "field": "Environment",
  "definition": "1. A systematic process for quantifying, typically in probabilistic terms, expert judgments about uncertain quantities. Expert elicitation may be used to characterize uncertainty and fill data gaps where traditional scientific research is not feasible or data are not yet available. Typically, the necessary quantities are obtained through structured interviews and/or questionnaires. Procedural steps can be used to minimize the effects of heuristics and bias in expert judgments.\n\n2. A process for obtaining expert beliefs about subjective quantities and probabilities. Typically, structured interviews and/or questionnaires are used to elicit the necessary knowledge. Expert elicitations may also include coaching techniques to help the expert conceptualize, visualize, and quantify the knowledge being sought.\n\n3. A formal, highly structured and well-documented process for obtaining the judgments of multiple experts. Typically, an elicitation is conducted to evaluate uncertainty. This uncertainty could be associated with the value of a parameter to be used in a model, the likelihood and frequency of various future events or the relative merits of alternative models.",
  "subject": "General environmental",
  "references": [
    "Modeling Glossary",
    "Preparing Economic Analyses Glossary"
  ],
  "url": "https://mlchart.com/terminology/environment/expert-elicitation/"
}