Ensemble forecast

{
  "id": "MLC-T-MET-000865",
  "term": "Ensemble forecast",
  "field": "Meteorology and atmospheric science",
  "definitions": [
    "A collection of multiple numerical weather predictions, each initiated from slightly different initial conditions or using different model physics, to account for uncertainties in the atmospheric state and model formulation. The spread among the individual forecasts provides an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and the range of possible future atmospheric conditions. This method is widely used for medium-range and long-range weather prediction.",
    "Multiple predictions from an ensemble of slightly different initial conditions and/or various versions of models. The objectives are to improve the accuracy of the forecast through averaging the various forecasts, which eliminates non-predictable components, and to provide reliable information on forecast uncertainties from the diversity amongst ensemble members. Forecasters use this tool to measure the likelihood of a forecast."
  ],
  "references": [
    "NWS Glossary"
  ],
  "url": "https://mlchart.com/terminology/meteorology/ensemble-forecast/"
}