Probability forecast

{
  "id": "MLC-T-MET-002140",
  "term": "Probability forecast",
  "field": "Meteorology and atmospheric science",
  "definitions": [
    "A weather forecast that quantifies the likelihood of a specific meteorological event occurring, expressed as a percentage. For example, a 30% chance of rain indicates that similar atmospheric conditions have led to rain in 30% of past occurrences. These forecasts provide users with a measure of uncertainty, aiding in decision-making.",
    "A forecast of the probability that one or more of a mutually exclusive set of weather conditions will occur."
  ],
  "see_also": [
    "persistence forecast",
    "random forecast"
  ],
  "references": [
    "NWS Glossary"
  ],
  "url": "https://mlchart.com/terminology/meteorology/probability-forecast/"
}