Spread skill correlation

{
  "id": "MLC-T-MET-009162",
  "term": "Spread skill correlation",
  "field": "Meteorology and atmospheric science",
  "definition": "A statistical measure used in ensemble forecasting to quantify the relationship between the forecast spread and the forecast error. It assesses whether the variability among ensemble members is a good predictor of the forecast's actual accuracy. A high positive correlation indicates that a larger spread correctly corresponds to a larger forecast error, providing confidence in the ensemble system's uncertainty estimates.",
  "see_also": [
    "ensemble spread"
  ],
  "url": "https://mlchart.com/terminology/meteorology/spread-skill-correlation/"
}